BREAKING NEWS: Every Team’s Biggest X-Factor Ahead of 2024 NFL Playoff Push. giang

By definition, an X-factor is something “that has a strong but unpredictable influence.”

In the NFL, that can sometimes be a player, a unit, a habit or a trend. Regardless, we see them impact the paths of contenders every year.

With five weeks remaining on the 2024 regular-season schedule, let’s identify one for every team that is within three games of a playoff spot.

Buffalo Bills: The Combination of Greg Rousseau and Taron Johnson on Defense

To keep teams such as the Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Lions and Eagles at bay when it matters most in January and/or February, the Bills will likely need their breakout pressure guy and their experienced, play-making corner to deliver as defensive linchpins up front and in coverage, respectively.

Miami Dolphins: The Road

The Dolphins are now 0-3 on the road against opponents with winning records this season, and 0-5 overall in those spots. They’ve lost eight consecutive games against winning opponents dating back to last winter, and they’ve been outscored by 69 points in their last three road games in temperatures below 50 degrees.

How they fare in tough and/or cold road matchups with the Texans, Browns and Jets will likely determine if they can steal a wild-card spot in the AFC.

Baltimore Ravens: Red-Zone Execution

The Ravens have scored touchdowns on a ridiculous 39 of their 52 red-zone appearances, which is easily the top rate in the league. It helps that they’ve smashed their way to an NFL-best 5.7 yards per carry.

They grind you down, but an untimely failure in a big spot can make all the difference.

Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Watt

The Steelers will likely only go as far as their prime Defensive Player of the Year candidate lets them go based on how hot he is.

T.J. Watt’s sack numbers haven’t quite been where many expected this season, but he might be warming up following a standout performance that included five quarterback hits Sunday against Cincinnati.

This defense has room to improve, and Watt can lead that charge.

Houston Texans: Defensive Playmaking Ability

The Texans have not been as steady or as explosive on offense as they were during C.J. Stroud’s rookie season, but the defense has kept them afloat thanks in part to an eight-game stretch during which they’ve recorded 21 takeaways. Only four other teams have generated that many turnovers all season.

What’s wild is they’ve lost three games in which they recorded three-plus takeaways, but if that unit keeps making plays, it could allow the offense to get back into a groove for the Texans to make a run.

Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson

Obviously you can roll with a quarterback as an X-factor in most cases, but we’re reserving that in this exercise for the most obvious wild cards.

Anthony Richardson’s campaign could go in two very different directions as he continues to climb back from a midseason benching, and how that pans out will likely determine Indy’s chances of playing meaningful January football.

Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton has been a huge part of the emergence of Box Nix for a Denver team that is very much in the thick of it at 8-5.

The veteran receiver has caught 42 passes for 569 yards since Week 8, and he leads all NFL receivers with 26 receptions and 418 yards just on third down.

Kansas City Chiefs: Third Down

A big reason the Chiefs have remained a prime contender despite a lack of domination on either side of the ball? They execute when it matters most. Specifically, they’ve converted a league-high 50 percent of the time on third down.

They’ve also scored 11 touchdowns compared to just two turnovers under those circumstances. That makes anyone damn hard to beat.

Los Angeles Chargers: Clutch Defense

The Chargers have the league’s No. 1-rated scoring defense, thanks in part to the fact that they rank in the top three in terms of third-down stop rate (66.7 percent) and red-zone touchdown rate (57.1 percent).

Opponents have a lot of trouble sustaining drives against L.A. defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s D.

Dallas Cowboys: The Quarterback Position

Dallas is likely toast at 5-7 without Dak Prescott for the remainder of the year. To change that, the Cowboys would likely need an epic run from either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance, but it would have to be Darnold- or Purdy-like.

Philadelphia Eagles: The Pass Defense

It’s what crippled the Eagles more than anything else when they collapsed last season, but right now they’re rolling with a league-low 6.2 yards per attempt allowed and the league’s sixth-highest sack rate.

If that unit can keep it up, it takes a ton of pressure off of Jalen Hurts and the offense.

Washington Commanders: The Running Game

It’s about how you control games, limit exposure with a rookie quarterback in high-pressure spots and slow everything down in general.

Jayden Daniels is a rushing threat himself, and Brian Robinson Jr. is coming off a strong performance. And while they hope to get Austin Ekeler back from a concussion in time for the playoffs, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez have flashed as well.

Detroit Lions: Aidan Hutchinson

There’s still a chance the superstar edge defender returns from a broken tibia before all is said and done. The Lions have been pretty dominant without him. With him, they’d be a clear-cut Super Bowl favorite.

Entering Week 14, Detroit’s inconsistent pass rush had been held to one or zero sacks in four of its previous six games.

Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs

Jordan Love is back on track and the Packers look like at least a fringe contender, but the quarterback has been prone to injuries and mistakes and they’ll need the balance Jacobs brings to keep defenses honest and keep the team competitive if/when Love has his moments.

The veteran running back is crushing it right now, and he likely has to keep doing so if Green Bay wants to dethrone Detroit.

Minnesota Vikings: Turnovers, Particularly on the Ground

Only four teams have turned the ball over more than a Vikings squad that has still managed to start 10-2, but that is not sustainable.

Sam Darnold has 10 interceptions and seven fumbles, and his habits are unlikely to change dramatically. They need Aaron Jones to protect the ball, and/or they need to get Cam Akers and Ty Chandler more involved.

Atlanta Falcons: Drake London

Kirk Cousins will need his top receiver to come up big down the stretch.

For what it’s worth, London’s success rate is higher against opponents that are .500 or better (65.2 percent) than it is against sub-.500 teams (45.9 percent). That says a lot about how much of a gamer he can be.

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young

It’s pretty simple: The only way the Panthers have any shot at overcoming a huge deficit in the playoff race is if their sophomore No. 1 overall pick builds significantly on a promising return to the starting lineup.

New Orleans Saints: The Run Defense

This comes down to the fact that the 4-8 Saints probably have to run the table, and between now and Week 18, a defense that has surrendered a tied-league-high 5.1 yards per carry will have to face Daniels/Robinson and the Commanders, Jacobs and the Packers, and a Bucs running game led by the next man on our list…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucky Irving

The rookie fourth-round pick is exploding. Arguably, he has saved the Bucs’ season by carrying them in back-to-back victories, and he’s been clutch overall.

In the fourth quarter/overtime of one-score games, he’s averaging 7.6 yards per carry. The 22-year-old is a potential game-changer for Tampa Bay.

Arizona Cardinals: Budda Baker

The Cardinals have actually been better defensively than offensively, and they’ll need to keep that up to finish the job in the NFC West.

Baker is the heart of this defense, and he’s the type of player who could turn a loss into a win when it matters most.

Los Angeles Rams: The Pass Rush

Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith. They are the quarterbacks the Rams are slated to go up against in the final five weeks.

It’s imperative that Jared Verse and a young but intriguing front seven take some pressure off of a soft secondary

San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo

The rookie running back will have much of the 49ers’ offense on his shoulders now that both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason have hit injured reserve.

If the 24-year-old can explode, anything’s possible for a talented and experienced team.

Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith With the Game on the Line

As hot and cold as Smith has been, he has led an NFL-high seven fourth-quarter comebacks and eight game-winning drives since the start of 2023.

The two-time Pro Bowler and the Seahawks are likely to find themselves in some tight, critical spots the next three weeks against Arizona, Green Bay and Minnesota.