The New York Mets overpaid for Juan Soto, especially compared to the contract the Los Angeles Dodgers paid Shohei Ohtani to woo the two-way star from the Los Angeles Angels.
On Sunday, it was announced that the 26-year-old Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets, which could reach $800 million. New York will give Soto a $75 million signing bonus, a full no-trade clause, no deferrals and an opt-out after five seasons, giving the star an out if his time with the Mets does not go as planned.
The Mets also can void the outfielder’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if New York boosts the annual average annual value of the final 10 years of the deal from $51 million to $55 million. That is the scenario which will see the generational talent’s contract be worth approximately $805 million over its lifetime.
And while Soto is a generational offensive player in his own right, his career numbers on the surface level are relatively similar to Ohtani’s. From 2018 to the 2024 season, Soto and Ohtani’s slash lines essentially are a wash, with the star outfielder compiling a .285/.421/.532 line with a .953 OPS. Meanwhile, the Japanese star posted .282/.371/.575 with a .945 OPS in the same time span.
Soto does have a higher Wins Above Replacement (WAR) number than Ohtani, beating out the latter handily (36.4 to 28.7). The Dominican star also routinely patrols right field, earning numerous Gold Glove finalist nominations throughout his career.
While Soto is perceived as an impressive defensive outfielder, the stats paint a different picture. Despite being a gold glove finalist in 2022, Soto was ranked 242 out of 243 defenders in FanGraphs’ defensive metric (DEF) at -20.8, ahead of only Kyle Schwarber, and was near the bottom of other defensive metrics, per justbaseball.
This past season with the New York Yankees, Soto’s DEF was better, but not by much. His -6.0 DEF was an improvement over 2022, but was still ranked 204 out of 246 players with the most innings registered at a single position. Though Soto can improve on defense, it is clear the Mets paid for the 26-year-old’s ability at the plate as his base running leaves much to be desired as well.
Soto compiled a career-worst -3.8 BsR last season, per FanGraphs. BsR is the baserunning component of WAR, evaluating stolen bases, caught stealings, being thrown out, and so on. For comparison, Ohtani had a 9.8 BsR, which saw him become the first player in league history to hit 50+ home runs and steal 50+ bases in the same season.
Another factor to take into account is that Ohtani is not just a hitter: He is a legitimate five-tool player, though not in a conventional sense. Instead of fielding, the Japanese star can pitch and when healthy, Ohtani arguably is one of the best on the mound.
Since his disastrous 2020 season which saw him pitch in only two games, Ohtani was an ace from 2021 to 2023 as a member of the Angles. In 74 games, all starts, Ohtani had a 2.84 ERA, holding hitters to a .199/.275/.332 line with an OPS of .607, helping him garner three All-Star appearances and two AL MVP awards.
For his career, his strikeout per nine innings pitched rate is 11.4, which would be the best mark in league history ahead of his new teammate Blake Snell, if he qualified. However, Ohtani does not qualify because he has not pitched enough innings, as those on the leaderboard need to have pitched over 1000 innings to be considered.
Ohtani currently sits at 481.2 innings pitched for his career and considering he has undergone Tommy John surgery twice, it appears unlikely the 30-year-old will pitch enough to reach the threshold. For reference, Ohtani will need to average at least 100 innings pitched the next five years to qualify.
Lastly, while Soto is an immense talent capable of enthralling baseball fans, he does not have the same appeal as Ohtani. Ohtani’s reach in Japan is gargantuan, with the two-way star’s popularity evident by the viewing figures released after the Dodgers defeated the Yankees in the 2024 World Series.
It was estimated that an average of 12.1 million people in Japan watched the Fall Classic, making it the most-watched World Series in the country’s history. Furthermore, Game 1 and Game 2 of the World Series were the two most-watched playoff games in Japan in MLB history, with 14.4 million tuning in to watch the former and the latter drawing in 15.9 million, per MLB.
It is clear the Mets were looking to make a splash to add a star and they did so by signing Soto. However, New York overpaid for a generational offensive talent, which makes Ohtani’s contract look all the more impressive in hindsight.
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