SPORT NEWS: Bold predictions from B/R staff after the NBA season’s first month. .giang

We’re a month into the 2024-25 NBA campaign, and the league has already provided us with plenty of fodder for hot takes.

Drama may be at an all-time high for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Los Angeles Lakers have cruised out of the gates under new coach JJ Redick. And seeds have already been planted for some potential blockbuster trades in both conferences.

Based on all the players, teams and storylines we’ve analyzed to this point, here’s a scorching batch of takes to monitor as we head toward December.

How long will Giannis Antetokoumpo stay satisfied with the Milwaukee Bucks’ mediocre roster? After locking in an extension, look for the former NBA Most Valuable Player to push for a trade before the deadline.

The Bucks have not improved since winning the title in 2021. Damian Lillard is a more exciting basketball player than Jrue Holiday, but the Boston Celtics just won the championship with Holiday at the point. Milwaukee hasn’t drafted well in recent years, and the aging players around Antetokounmpo haven’t been properly replenished. Payroll is out of control, and the team falsely registers as a contender based on the names Antetokoumpo and Lillard.

With minimal draft compensation, young players and overall assets to improve via trade, Antetokoumpo chooses to play the villain and force his way out. The Bucks, rightfully recognizing it’s time, comply. While the Houston Rockets may currently protest they’re not interested (H/T Kelly Iko of The Athletic), this kind of offer might make sense for all parties when the time comes in February.

—Eric Pincus

The Philadelphia 76ers couldn’t have gotten off to a much worse start, and you barely even have to mention the 2-12 record to get to that point.

Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George have all missed time. For the two older stars, the health concerns are ongoing. Embiid was reportedly called out for being late to team activities in a team meeting, and now he wants to find the “snitch” (someone he’s publicly referred to as a “piece of s–t”) responsible for leaking the details of that meeting. PG recorded a podcast on the same meeting. And coach Nick Nurse has looked, to put it mildly, surly in just about every appearance in front of the media.

After an offseason that drew rave reviews from both fans and media, the actual product out of Philadelphia has been a mess.

While the Eastern Conference’s general weakness means a non-play-in finish is still well within reach (in spite of everything, the Sixers are only four games back of sixth place right now), Philly might be best served returning to the philosophy that landed them Embiid.

That’s right. Bring back the process by keeping The Process on the shelf as much as possible.

It’s clear that Embiid is not fully healthy, engaged, or both. The Sixers should consider that. They should extend the injury timelines, schedule lots of “injury management” days, and just keep losing.

Philadelphia owns its own 2025 first-round pick, but only if it lands in the top six. And this draft is potentially loaded with franchise changers.

Regardless of what happens this season, moving into 2025-26 with a core of Maxey, Jared McCain (one of this season’s lone bright spots) and Cooper Flag, Ace Bailey, Egor Demin or some other top pick would give 76ers fans a glimmer of hope.

—Andy Bailey

Considering Nikola Jokić’s current averages of 29.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists, this take might not seem all that hot. So, it’s worth reminding you that Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook—both guards—are the only two players in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season (though Westbrook, of course, did it four times).

We may have sort of grown numb to Jokić’s production at this point, but it’s objectively bonkers that anyone, especially a center, could pull off that same feat.

Jokić is going to do it, though. The Denver Nuggets have needed him to play more than he has in recent years, as some of their younger rotations players are getting used to new roles. More minutes alone means more production.

But the big man also has a wider variety of targets to pass to. Christian Braun is a better cutter than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Russell Westbrook already has solid chemistry in the two-man game with Jokić. And there seem to be more kickout opportunities, too. This year’s Nuggets have six players other than Jokić taking at least three threes per game. Last year, they only had three.

All of that together will keep Jokić’s assist average north of 10 for the entire season. The points and rebounds are a given.

—Andy Bailey

We’re here to do hot takes, and this one is center-of-the-sun incendiary.

Until you realize it is totally possible.

After a three-game absence, Nikola Jokić entered action on Friday, Nov. 22, leading the league in both rebounds and assists per game. His 29.7 points are comfortably a career high, but they don’t pace the NBA.

And yet, they might.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are the only players averaging more points per game. They could fall off or miss time or, um, request trades to another team that doesn’t need them to score as much.

Oh, Jokić could also just catch both without any help from external forces or Giannis and AD themselves. Because while he is not universally recognized as a scorer, the Denver Nuggets clearly need him to be more of one this year.

Christian Braun and Peyton Watson look good, and Michael Porter Jr. has come around after a choppy start. But Jamal Murray remains one of the most unpredictable players from game to game. The Nuggets do not have the margin of error to ride that roller coaster without also leaning extra heavily on their, let’s face it, soon-to-be-four-time-who-should-be-a-five-time MVP.

This dependence is reflected in Jokić’s minutes. Mikal Bridges and, for some reason, Kevin Durant are receiving more per game. Denver has looked better over the past two or so weeks, but it does not have the bankable supporting cast to significantly cut Jokić’s workload.

Whether that’s OK in the long term, specifically into the playoffs, is debatable. For our purposes, though, it means Jokić will have the floor time and expanded indispensability required to jockey for the scoring title’s pole position.

—Dan Favale

Both Norman Powell and Tyler Herro are so often looped into the “Guards who aren’t primary playmakers or big enough to be wings and are therefore overpaid” bucket.

Take this, bucket.

Powell and Herro are off to such incendiary starts that we may just need to accept as their normals. At least one of them will be an All-Star in 2025 as a result.

Don’t laugh. This is extremely serious.

Seven players this season are clearing 23 points per game on true shooting north of 63: Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving Nikola Jokić, Tyler Herro and Norman Powell. This is, objectively, wild.

Herro’s case is stronger, in part because he plays in the (L)Eastern Conference. But also because he’s mind-bogglingly efficient while dishing out dimes. Jokić and Kyrie are the only other players putting up over 24 points and five assists per game with a true shooting percentage above 65.

—Dan Favale

In raw terms, the Oklahoma City Thunder will not have one of the best defensive ratings in NBA history, especially after losing Chet Holmgren for the foreseeable future.

But!

Adjusted defensive rating is a better measure of effectiveness. This approach evaluates a team’s performance across history relative to the league average. Calculating it is pretty straightforward. You just divide the league-average defensive rating from each year by every team’s individual defensive rating, then multiply the result by a 100. In this case, then, the higher adjusted defensive rating is better.

As of now, the top three era-adjusted defensive ratings belong to the 1963-64 Boston Celtics (112.89), the 1964-65 Celtics (111.16) and the 1961-62 Celtics (109.99). Entering games on Friday, Nov. 22, the Thunder have an adjusted defensive rating of 109.89. That would be good enough for the fourth-best mark in league history.

Let’s go ahead and assume they crack the top three. Isaiah Hartenstein has officially debuted, Holmgren should be back at some point, and this roster is teeming with smaller players capable of guarding up and playing at frantic, relentless clips.

—Dan Favale

Just a year ago the Cleveland Cavaliers ranked a modest 16th overall in the NBA in offense. This season, they’ll finish as the greatest scoring attack the league has ever seen.

While this seems like a bold claim to make especially considering that this franchise made no significant changes to its core, the Cavs currently sit No. 1 in the NBA offensively (123.8 rating)m which has them slightly ahead of the 2023-24 Boston Celtics (123.2 rating) who set the new standard a year ago.

Cleveland is going to stay at this top spot for a number of reasons.

New head coach Kenny Atkinson has this team playing faster (12th overall in pace, up from 24th a year ago), Evan Mobley has become an adequate floor spacer (37.9 percent on nearly two attempts a game) and a healthy Darius Garland (20.6 points, 7.0 assists, 43.0 percent from three) looks like an All-Star once again.

The Cavs are first overall in three-point accuracy (41.6 percent) and should actually start shooting far more than they currently do (36.9 attempts per game, 14th overall), a number that should rise once Max Strus finally makes his season debut following an ankle injury.

With no player topping 31.0 minutes a night through the first 17 games, these Cavaliers should be well rested and able to maintain their new high-powered offense through the remainder of the year.

—Greg Swartz

Like the rest of the hoops world, the San Antonio Spurs got a chance to marvel at everything Victor Wembanyama could do last season. Now, they’re seeing what he’s capable of if surrounded by a competent supporting cast.

The Spurs are legitimately competitive, and they haven’t even tapped into their rich asset collection yet. If Wembanyama is doing all of this with mostly replacement-level players around him, imagine what might happen if San Antonio slotted a bona fide second star alongside him.

That temptation—and the boundless possibilities it holds—will be too great for the front office to ignore, especially if Wembanyama communicates any kind of desire to compete at a higher level. And he’d be well within his right to make such a request, since the Spurs have more than enough draft picks (nine incoming first-round picks or swaps; zero picks outgoing) and prospects to broker a blockbuster.

Some star will shake loose during the upcoming trade season. Maybe more than one. And since Wembanayama fits with virtually anyone—he can control the interior on defense and keep the paint uncluttered on offense—the Spurs could (and probably should) be in the running for whoever that player is (or those players are).

The Western Conference might be fully loaded, but how many times would San Antonio go into a series worried that the best player isn’t on its side? Wembanyama’s presence alone makes just about anything feel possible, and don’t be surprised to see the Spurs start exploring what could happen if he had a legitimate co-star at his side.

—Zach Buckley

When the Orlando Magic lost star forward Paolo Banchero to a torn right oblique, it felt like their campaign could be derailed before ever getting started. He was in such an awesome groove to start the season—he recorded the campaign’s first 50-piece before going down—and their bottom-third offense seemingly lacked the firepower to get by without him.

Yet, with Franz Wagner leveling up in Banchero’s absence, and this defense remaining one of the league’s most relentless, Orlando has held up just fine without Banchero. And with the top pick of the 2022 draft feeling good enough about his recovery to vocalize hopes of a holiday return, this supporting cast may only have to shoulder the heavy lifting for a little bit longer.

With a bankably elite defense, the Magic only need to get their offense up to league average to become a real threat. That feels doable. This roster is loaded with upward mobility due to all of the young talent, and several of its veterans are capable of better than they’ve shown. Oh, and if the offense remains an issue, Orlando has the assets needed to upgrade it ahead of the trade deadline.

Tack on the ominous signs from sluggish starts in Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Indiana, and it kind of feels like a top-four seed is Orlando’s to lose. And the way our crystal ball sees it, the Magic aren’t giving it up.

—Zach Buckley

Jalen Williams has worked his way into being one of the most complete players in the NBA, so he’s certainly not the kind of guy to skip steps—except when it comes to leaguewide honors.

J-Dub fell short in Rookie of the Year voting two seasons ago and didn’t make the All-Star team as a sophomore, but he’s going to vault all the way to All-NBA status this year.

The statistical resumé just keeps getting stronger. The 23-year-old is currently the only player in the league averaging at least 21.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 2.0 steals. We don’t even need to include his 1.0 block per game to put him in a class by himself. As Williams’ volume continues to climb, his efficiency somehow keeps pace. Most moderate-usage players would love to have a 51.7/39.0/81.8 shooting split, but Williams is pulling that off with a career-high 26.5 usage percentage.

Kawhi Leonard is hurt; Joel Embiid and Tyrese Haliburton are struggling; Kevin Durant has already missed several games. The list in this injury-riddled campaign goes on. Pair the sudden availability of more All-NBA spots with Williams’ ongoing rise, and you’ve got a recipe for him to make it.

—Grant Hughes

The Eastern Conference’s impotence is undeniable. A month into the year, just four teams have winning records, and no one outside of Boston or Cleveland looks like a contender. The New York Knicks could soon find themselves back on the fringes of that discussion, but the point stands: The East is struggling.

That said, predicting three playoff teams (we’re talking about the final eight, post Play-In) will have losing records should still count as a hot take. That’s because it’s rare for even a single team to make the dance with a sub-.500 record. In the last 20 years, we’ve only seen an East playoff field with two losing records twice—once in 2014-15 and once in 2007-08.

Going to three is a leap, but what other conclusion can we draw with a group of teams piling up defeats like this?

The MIlwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers and especially the Philadelphia 76ers were all supposed to contend for a top-four spot, but they’re comfortably below the break-even level so far. Wins will be hard to come by against the much more powerful West, and increased parity means theoretical in-conference pushovers like the Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets and Toronto Raptors are all capable of putting up a fight on any given night. That’ll result in a trio of East “losers” landing playoff spots.

—Grant Hughes

The Coach of Year race this season will be filled with candidates. Kenny Atkinson, Steve Kerr, and Ime Udoka have strong cases. However, first-time head coach JJ Redick will be a legitimate candidate to win coach of the year.

This award is usually awarded to the coach who most exceeds expectations. After a 15-0 start, Atkinson is the front-runner on FanDuel. The Cavs are on track to have a great season. That said, Redick has the Lakers on track to rocket past their win expectations. At this point in the season, he has them on a 54-win pace, which is 11.5 wins better than the Lakers’ over/under win total at the start of the season, with the line set at 43.5.

Redick has brought new life to the Los Angeles Lakers’ offense. Last season, their offensive rating was 15th, and the year before that it was 19th. This season under Redick, the Lakers have the fourth-best offensive rating in the NBA—not to mention the second-highest points per possession coming out of timeouts at 1.097.

Redick has put the Lakers in a great position, and if this continues, he will win Coach of the Year in his first year as an NBA coach.

—Mo Dakhil